(I) The Past: The Evolutionary Trajectory of Supply Chains — 'Flying Geese → Refinement → Diversification'
The 'Flying Geese' Division Model — From the 1960s to the 1990s, global trade division was predominantly characterized by inter-industry vertical specialization, epitomized by the classic 'Flying Geese' model. Under this model, industrial division and relocation occurred across independent economies, with the East Asian industrial transfer path — 'Japan → Four Asian Tigers → China’s coastal regions' — serving as a quintessential example.
Refined Division — After the 1990s, as global trade division became increasingly refined, intra-product specialization rapidly expanded. Economies leveraged their respective comparative advantages to focus on specific segments of production value chains. Consequently, global trade patterns shifted from traditional goods trade toward supply-chain trade, with the share of global supply-chain trade in total global trade rising swiftly—from roughly 40% in the early 1990s to over 50%. Particularly following China’s accession to the WTO, China gradually evolved into the 'world’s factory,' with the intermediate links of global industrial chains concentrating in China—especially along its coastal regions.
Diversified Division — Following the 2008 global financial crisis, rising trade protectionism and escalating trade disputes led to a decline in the share of supply-chain trade within global trade. Concurrently, global supply chains began exhibiting clear diversification trends. This trend toward dispersion and diversification is likely accelerating further amid the ongoing pandemic shock.
(II) The Present: A Global Supply Chain Structure Centered on 'China–U.S.–Germany'
After three decades of rapid development, global supply-chain trade has largely coalesced into a network centered on China, the United States, and Germany. Within this framework, China specializes primarily in traditional manufacturing; the U.S., in science and technology R&D; and Germany, in advanced manufacturing. In terms of global intermediate goods trade, both the scale and number of trading partners for the U.S., China, and Germany rank among the world’s highest. Although Japan maintains relatively large trade volumes and economic size, its scale of supply-chain trade (i.e., intermediate goods trade) remains comparatively modest—significantly smaller than those of China, the U.S., and Germany.
(III) The Future: Deglobalization and the Pandemic Accelerating Supply Chain Dispersion
Currently, global trade is shifting from globalization toward dispersion and regionalization—a trend that may culminate in a multi-polar structure. Historically, the foundational logic underpinning global supply chain development has been cost minimization and efficiency maximization. However, with the rise of trade protectionism and deglobalization sentiment—and compounded by the prolonged impact of the pandemic—future global supply chains will need to strike a new balance between cost-efficiency and resilience. As a result, global supply chains are expected to become increasingly dispersed, potentially evolving into a multi-centered configuration. Against this backdrop, China’s short-term advantages remain intact: its vast consumer market (with domestic and international cycles mutually reinforcing), its comprehensive industrial system (the only country globally possessing all recognized industrial categories), its well-developed infrastructure (a cornerstone for efficient supply chains), and its stable political environment (ensuring a predictable business climate). In the medium to long term, however, China must continuously upgrade the value-added content of its industrial chains—transitioning from a 'manufacturing giant' to a 'manufacturing powerhouse'—and re-establish new comparative advantages in high-end manufacturing.
Last updated: 2026-03-08